Market update as of November 4, 2026. This reflects conditions at the time of writing and is for informational purposes only, not financial advice.
EUR/USD climbed to a two-week high above 1.1250 on November 4 before easing back toward 1.1230, as the US dollar weakened after early midterm election results showed Democrats taking control of Congress.
How We Got Here
The pair has fallen a long way since September, when it was trading around 1.16–1.17. Since early October it has been in a minor downtrend, pressured by a firmer dollar after the Fed’s September hike and by stress in French government bond yields weighing on the euro.
Buyers have repeatedly stepped in around 1.1100, which has acted as the floor of the recent decline.
Levels to Watch
- 1.1250: The immediate hurdle, this week’s two-week high. A sustained break above it would also break the downtrend line from the early-October highs.
- 1.1100: The key support area. A clean break below it would put the recent bounce in doubt.
Options markets priced EUR/USD’s overnight implied range around the election at roughly 92 pips, a reminder that event-driven moves can be large.
The Rate Backdrop
The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.50% on October 29 after hiking in September, and President Christine Lagarde signaled that another increase in December remains possible. Eurozone inflation was 3.8% in September, and the preliminary October reading is expected to rise toward 4%.
The Fed held at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28 but also left a December hike open. With both central banks leaning hawkish, the rate gap between the two is not moving decisively either way, which leaves the pair more sensitive to data and politics.
What Could Move the Pair This Week
- Eurozone preliminary October inflation (November 4)
- US ISM Services PMI (November 4)
- US October jobs report (November 6)
A hot eurozone inflation print would support the euro by raising December hike odds at the ECB. A strong US jobs number would do the same for the dollar on the Fed side.