Market analysis as of November 10, 2026, written before the 8:30 a.m. ET release. This reflects conditions at the time of writing and is for informational purposes only, not financial advice.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30 a.m. ET. This report matters more than usual, and it will also look different from normal.
Why There Is No Annual Inflation Rate This Month
Normally, the headline CPI number traders quote is the change in prices over the past 12 months. This time, the BLS will publish monthly changes only for most series. The reason is the US government shutdown in October 2025: price data for that month was never collected, so there is no October 2025 figure to compare October 2026 against.
For traders, that means the month-on-month numbers are the ones that will move markets.
The Forecasts
- Headline CPI: +0.3% on the month, down from +0.6% in September
- Core CPI (excluding food and energy): +0.2% on the month, down from +0.3%
For context, September’s annual inflation rate was 3.7%, driven by a 9.1% surge in gasoline prices, with core inflation at 2.6%.
The Number That Matters: Core at 0.3%
On the morning of the release, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a half-point hike should be considered if core CPI rises by about 0.3% or more. That gives traders a clear threshold:
- Core 0.2% or lower: supports a standard 25 basis point December hike. The dollar may ease, and EUR/USD could push above 1.1250.
- Core 0.3%: half-point hike talk grows. The dollar likely strengthens, and EUR/USD could fall back toward 1.1130.
- Core 0.4% or higher: a major hawkish surprise. Expect a sharp dollar rally, pressure on gold and stocks, and higher US yields.
These are scenarios, not predictions. Markets can react in unexpected ways, especially when the report has an unusual format.
Energy Could Pull the Headline Lower
Oil prices fell sharply in early November on hopes of US–Iran talks, but October’s data reflects prices during October, when energy was still elevated. The bigger effect of falling oil is more likely to show up in November’s report.
Levels to Watch
- EUR/USD: around 1.1220 before the release, with 1.1250 resistance and 1.1130 support
- USD/JPY: near 158, with resistance around 158.70, an area where traders have been reluctant to push higher
- Gold: around $4,100–4,130, sensitive to any jump in Fed hike expectations
Trading Tip
CPI is one of the most volatile releases of the month. Spreads can widen sharply at 8:30 a.m. ET. Consider waiting for the first move to settle before trading, as explained in How to Trade Around News Events. See what else is coming up in our calendar for November 16–20.