Market analysis as of November 13, 2026. This reflects conditions at the time of writing and is for informational purposes only, not financial advice.
EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level in 18 months. The pair dropped from near 1.1200 at Monday’s close to around 1.1050 on Thursday, November 12, after three straight days of losses.
What Broke the Euro
Since early October, EUR/USD had held a range between roughly 1.1100 and 1.1300. As we noted in our earlier analysis, 1.1100 was the key floor. This week, that floor gave way.
Three things drove the move:
- Hot US inflation: October CPI beat forecasts, with core inflation up 0.3% on the month.
- Fed hike bets: futures now price about a 90% chance of a quarter-point Fed hike in December, with the rest on a half-point move.
- Oil prices: Brent jumped more than 3% on Thursday after Iranian state media reported an attack. The eurozone imports nearly all of its oil and pays in dollars, so higher oil prices hurt the euro.
The Rate Gap Is Widening
The ECB’s deposit rate is 2.50%, while the Fed’s target range is 3.75%โ4.00%, a gap of at least 1.25 percentage points. Every increase in Fed hike expectations widens that gap and makes the dollar more attractive. Learn why in Interest Rate Differentials Explained.
Big Picture
EUR/USD is now about 5.5% below its late-August peak near 1.1700. The dollar index has climbed to an 18-month high, and most of that rise reflects euro weakness.
Levels to Watch
- 1.1100: the old range floor, now likely resistance on any bounce.
- 1.1050: this week’s low area.
- 1.1000: a major psychological level and the next obvious support.
- 1.1250: a bigger resistance level that would need a sharp change in sentiment to reach.
Events That Could Move the Pair
- Friday, Nov 13: eurozone Q3 GDP (forecast +0.4% q/q), a speech by ECB board member Isabel Schnabel, and US PPI (forecast +0.4% m/m)
- Tuesday, Nov 17: US retail sales, forecast flat
- Wednesday, Nov 18: final eurozone inflation for October, and the FOMC minutes
What Could Help the Euro
A hawkish message from the ECB, especially signals of a December hike to fight 4% inflation, would narrow expected rate gaps. A softer run of US data would also ease pressure on the pair.
Risk Reminder
Fast-moving markets can reverse sharply. Use a stop-loss on every trade and keep position sizes small. See our risk management guide.